What is the development trend of the construction machinery industry?

The construction machinery industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "dual improvement of quality and efficiency". In the next 3-5 years, it will be driven by electrification, intelligence, high-end, service-oriented, and internationalization, entering a new cycle of "steady growth and structural optimization".

Five Core Trends (2025-2028)

1. Greening: Electrification accelerates penetration, hybrid/hydrogen energy runs in parallel

Pure electric scaling: zero emissions, low noise, low maintenance, and prominent long-term operation economy. By 2024, the penetration rate of electric lifting platforms will be 92.5%, electric forklifts will be 73.6%, and loaders will be 10.4%; The penetration rate of the main models (excavators/loaders) has exceeded 18%, reaching an explosive point in 2025-2026 and possibly reaching 30% in 2035.

Hybrid/hydrogen energy replenishment: Hybrid fuel efficiency improves by over 20%, suitable for high load/long range scenarios; Hydrogen fuel cells have been demonstrated and applied in specific scenarios such as mines and ports, forming a diversified route of "pure electricity as the mainstay, hybrid/hydrogen energy as the supplement".

Infrastructure improvement: Accelerate the construction of battery swapping stations, fast charging networks, and battery recycling systems to reduce user barriers and concerns.

2. Intelligence: From auxiliary to autonomous, unmanned as standard

Unmanned operation landing: L3 level unmanned driving is widely applied in ports, mines, and closed construction sites, and the installation of 5G remote control and intelligent scheduling systems is rapidly increasing; The intelligent cluster management system has exceeded 8500 sets, with an efficiency improvement of over 40%.

Digital twin and predictive maintenance: real-time monitoring of equipment status, accurate fault warning rate of over 90%, and a 30% reduction in maintenance costs; The penetration rate of digital twins in the operation and maintenance field exceeds 40%.

Integration of AI and Perception: Visual, LiDAR, and Millimeter Wave Radar collaborate to achieve environmental perception and path planning; AIGC empowers the generation and optimization of construction plans, shortening the construction period by more than 15%.

3. High end: Core components are independently controllable, super engineering adaptation

Core technological breakthroughs: The localization rate of key components such as engines, hydraulic systems, and electronic controls has increased, and the global competitiveness of high-end equipment such as ultra large cranes, shield tunneling machines, and mining equipment has been enhanced.

Customization and scenarization: Develop specialized models for emerging scenarios such as new energy infrastructure (photovoltaic/wind power), ocean engineering, emergency rescue, etc., and expand the "second growth curve".

Quality and reliability improvement: The average time between failures (MTBF) of the product has increased, narrowing the gap with international brands and supporting internationalization and high-end market expansion.

4. Service oriented: The aftermarket becomes a new growth engine, highlighting the full lifecycle value

The scale of the aftermarket has expanded: maintenance, parts supply, second-hand phone transactions, and leasing services have grown rapidly, and the proportion of aftermarket revenue for top enterprises has generally exceeded 25%, becoming a stable source of cash flow.

Service model innovation: The integrated solution of "product+service+finance" is popularized, and remote diagnosis, online training, and financial leasing reduce user barriers and risks.

Digital service platform: the industrial Internet platform integrates equipment data, provides accurate operation and maintenance and value-added services, and improves customer stickiness and repurchase rate.

5. Internationalization: From product output to global layout, the proportion of overseas revenue increases

Continuous high growth in exports: From January to October 2025, the export value was 48.526 billion US dollars (year-on-year+12%), a significant increase for four consecutive years; Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are the main incremental markets, while Europe and America have achieved structural breakthroughs.

Localization deepening: shifting from product exports to overseas factory construction, research and development centers, and sales service network construction, building a full chain localization system of "research and development manufacturing marketing service", and avoiding trade barriers.

Brand value enhancement: The recognition of Chinese brands in the global market has increased, with overseas revenue accounting for over 60% of the target (such as LiuGong's 2030 plan).

Market and structural changes

Cycle characteristics: This cycle is mainly characterized by equipment updates (equipment entered the 8-10 year update period from 2016 to 2021) and the penetration of new energy/intelligent equipment, with stronger sustainability and less volatility.

Optimization of demand structure: Traditional infrastructure stabilizes, while new scenarios such as new energy, industry, and agriculture contribute incremental growth, forming a dual wheel drive of "traditional+emerging".

Competitive landscape: Top enterprises further consolidate their market position with technological, brand, and scale advantages, while small and medium-sized enterprises transform into specialized and segmented fields.

Investment and Corporate Action Suggestions

Investment direction: Enterprises that focus on core components of electrification (batteries/motors/electronic controls), intelligent solutions (vision/perception/algorithms), high-end equipment manufacturing, and overseas channel layout.

Corporate Strategy:

Technology research and development: Increase investment in electrification and intelligence, cooperate with universities and research institutions, and break through core technology bottlenecks.

Product iteration: Launch a combination of "electric+intelligent" models to adapt to emerging scenarios and enhance product added value.

Service Upgrade: Build a digital service platform, expand aftermarket business, and enhance customer lifetime value.

Overseas layout: give priority to countries along the "the Belt and Road" and gradually establish a localized production and service system.